Scenarios, indicators, and what to watch The limits of prophecy In the early 2000s, the psychologist Philip Tetlock published the results of a long experiment. Over two decades, he had collected more than 28,000 predictions from hundreds of experts on politics and economics, and then checked them against what actually happened. On long-range political questions,
The Cockroach Republic — Part 6: 2026–2029 Read Post »
The movement at a crossroads Five months later On October 16, 2026, Abhijeet Dipke was detained and then arrested on his way to a march called Lehra Do Tiranga, wave the tricolour, in central Delhi. The next day he was granted conditional bail; under its terms, he must ensure that there is no breach of
The Cockroach Republic — Part 5: Can the Cockroach Survive Its Success? Read Post »
Identity, masculinity, and the right wing after the cockroach A cockroach among Ravan’s kin This Dussehra, at the Keshav Ramlila grounds in Delhi’s Pitampura, a fourth figure will stand beside the familiar effigies of Ravan, his brother Kumbhkaran and his son Meghnad: a cockroach, thirty feet tall. The organising committee, headed by the BJP legislator
The Cockroach Republic — Part 4: The Battle for the Young Hindu Read Post »
How the ruling party responded, and what its response reveals The government that did not resign In 2015, as opposition parties demanded cabinet resignations over two scandals, the then home minister, Rajnath Singh, drew a line between the new government and the coalition that had preceded it: ministers, he said, do not resign here. The
The Cockroach Republic — Part 3: The Strongman’s Dilemma Read Post »
Humour, the feminine, and the oldest grammar of Indian resistance The barricade at Patel Chowk On July 20, 2026, the day Parliament opened its monsoon session, thousands of young people set out from Jantar Mantar towards the Parliament building. They were demanding the resignation of the education minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, over the leak that had
The Cockroach Republic — Part 2: Laughter as a Weapon Read Post »
Why millions of young Indians became cockroaches in a week A week in May On May 15, 2026, during a hearing about fake educational degrees, the Chief Justice of India, Surya Kant, reached for an image of contempt. As widely reported, he likened young people who fail to find a place in the profession, and
The Cockroach Republic — Part 1: The Insult That Named a Generation Read Post »
